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The authors argue that "the purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable - to push the boundaries of current research on climate change in order to better understand the possible implications for the national security of the United States."
See this article surrendered today and the surprising scenario that is being realized
This report was commissioned by the Pentagon, led by Andrew Marshall, influential adviser to Donald Rumsfeld. Its authors are Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch / Shell, and Doug Randall of Global Business Network, a consulting firm based in California.
The report had been "betrayed" in October 2003 but its disclosure outside the military spheres has been hampered by the American authorities because its findings ran counter to the arguments usually defended by the Bush administration. This controversy was partly overshadowed the substance of the report, paradoxically, there was little discussed his findings in the major media.
Firstly it must be stressed there is a completely original authors: it is not a question of whether the earth is warming, or how, but ask the question of the consequences for the national security of the United States, United abrupt climate change. No philanthropy here, but a political act, in the sense that it is better to anticipate act.
Second, the authors do not place themselves in the event of a gradual climate change - which is that we are talking about in most cases - but in that of a snap in 2010, that is to say tomorrow, break they consider quite plausible, taking into account the scientific evidence and converging with a retrospective look at climate changes have occurred during the last 20000 years - particularly during the period known as the "recent Dryas "12700 years ago, and then during an episode cooling of the Earth occurred 8200 years ago, which serves as the basis for the scenario, and finally at the little ice age that lasted from the fourteenth to the nineteenth century.
For Randall and Marshall, the problem is not whether it will happen, but rather how to react because it will happen. In this sense they implement what the french philosopher Jean Pierre Dupuy calls in his book Small metaphysical tsunamis (ed. Seuil), which describes the attitude desirable compared to "disasters" announced that we need to as if they had already taken place to better guard!
The scenario described in the report, and based on scientific evidence, is as follows: gradual global warming, we find that for decades, now leads to a slowdown of the abrupt ocean thermohaline circulation - deep ocean currents that play a crucial role in the temperature of the Earth - as a result of cooling of the oceans, owing to the melting of ice sheets, and their "softening". This phenomenon leads to a chain reaction on the global climate, such a major disruption of the Gulf Stream which washes the shores of Europe. So this situation could result in a few years' much more harsh winters, a drastic reduction of moisture in soil and the appearance of the most violent winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant portion of the world's food. Accordingly: "With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant decrease in the ability of the ecosystem of the Earth to bear population."
It would mean an annual decline of 3.3 ° temperatures over the period 2010/2020, with snowstorms and wind much more frequent, a scarcity water resources and agricultural areas hardest hit, it makes our environment much less hospitable.
It sounds almost outlandish, but when we read, p. 23 of the report: "Since 2005 some parts of the world feel more intensely the effects of these variations in climate. Some storms and typhoons biggest cause surges… "one can not help thinking about Katrina and all of its consequences.
Ultimately, in this scenario, the climate is "deeply disturbed" across the globe, causing important changes in the ecosystem - droughts, reduction of food resources, access to safe drinking water made more difficult areas rendered uninhabitable ... -- Which causes profound economic, social and political. Indeed, the load capacity or capacity, ie the ability of the Earth and its ecosystems familiar, which include social, economic and cultural rights, to ensure the livelihood of many eventually people on the planet, will be held evil everywhere. The concept of carrying capacity, which was debated for nearly 200 years by theorists such Malthus, who once published his 1798 essay on the principle of the population and its effect on the future improvement of society, would then be handed over to the agenda so tragic. Indeed, usually carrying capacity increases notably as a result of technology which can absorb the increase in population, but a sudden deterioration of the load capacity, and compact leads almost mechanically reduced of the population as a result of famine, disease and war ... The system self-regulates in a way. Therefore, climate change would be a terrible leap backwards for mankind, if not properly prepared properly, including growing tension for access to resources becoming increasingly scarce causing conflicts , mass migrations, wars, ultra-protectionist strategies ...
Faced with this scenario black, but plausible - recall once again the primary purpose of the report: to ensure the security of the United States - the authors call seven measures:
Improve climate forecasting models, to validate climate change scenarios in a more precise manner
Assemble comprehensive predictive models of climate change impacts, in order to better evaluate the impacts of these changes
Create a tool to measure risk - for each country or region
Identify strategies, for secure access to scarce resources
Prepare adaptive responses to new needs, to cope with the disease, migration ...
Studying local implications, especially for agricultural areas
Explore options geo-technological climate control.
Beyond the proposed scenario, this is the essence of the approach of the report.
Finally, one may wonder whether our country, but also more relevant EU have developed such approaches. This seems indispensable, and it is essential that we, as citizens, be informed.
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