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Tuesday, 15 April 2008

The global average temperature at the surface is expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 ° C (Figure 5d) between 1990 and 2100. These results correspond to the full range of 35 SRES scenarios, and are based on a number of models climatiques10 11.

The projected increases in temperature will be greater than those in the SAR4, which ranged from approximately 1.0 and 3.5 ° C on the basis of the range of six IS92 scenarios. This increase in temperature, as well as the enlargement of the scale of their variations, is primarily due to projected lower sulphur dioxide emissions in the SRES scenarios in relation to IS92 scenarios.




 

The projected rate of warming is much higher than the observed changes during the twentieth century, and it is very probable7 he has no precedent during the last 10000 years, if one refers to data Pale climatic.

In 2100, the range of changes in surface temperatures for the entire group of climate models used with a given scenario is comparable to that obtained with a single model, but the range of different scenarios SRES.

On the scale of a few decades, the rate of warming observed now can be used to get an idea of the predictable reaction to specific emissions scenario despite the uncertainties in climate sensitivity. This approach suggests that the human-induced warming probablement7 be in the order of 0.1 to 0.2 ° C over ten years in the coming decades with the IS92a scenario, a range similar to that which it would mean wait with the projections used the simple model in Figure 5d.

If based on global simulations that allow for the newer models, it is very probable7 that almost all surface areas will warm more rapidly than the global average, especially in the north, to high latitudes during the cold season. What is most remarkable about this is that the warming in the northern regions of North America and northern and central Asia, will exceed by more than 40 percent in average global warming in each model. However, the effects of global warming issue will be lower than the global average warming in summer in South Asia and South-East Asia and winter in the southern parts of South America. (Link ExterneVoir the Technical Summary in Figure 20).

Current trends in surface temperatures in tropical Pacific, which look and look increasingly to those of El Niño with the tropical east of the Indian Ocean, which warms up more than the tropical west, and displacement corresponding precipitation to the east, was expected to be maintained according to many models.
Last Updated ( Thursday, 03 July 2008 )
 
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